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Project Details

Title:Probabilistic Modeling of Landslide Hazards to Improve the Resilience of Transportation Infrastructure
Principal Investigators:Peter A. Nelson
University:Colorado State University
Project #:MPC-593
RiP #:01698679
Keywords:debris flows, disaster resilience, floods, forecasting, highways, landslides, mapping, Monte Carlo method, probability


In steep or mountainous terrain, natural disasters such as wildfire, or severe weather and flooding, are often followed by landslides and debris flows. Roads and highways, which traverse a wide range of potential landslide hazards, are particularly susceptible to damage from mass wasting events. In this project, we will use a probabilistic process-based model for landslide initiation to quantify the probability of landslide hazard across the landscape, and map these hazards onto the road and highway network to determine probabilities of landslide hazard continuously throughout the transportation network. Uncertainty in hydroclimatological forcing, soils, and vegetation parameters will be accounted for through Monte Carlo simulation. Initial model development and application will focus on Colorado; in particular, the September 2013 Front Range floods which triggered over 1,100 debris flows.

NDSU Dept 2880P.O. Box 6050Fargo, ND 58108-6050